Modelamiento de presiones sobre la biodiversidad en la Guayana

Alexander Rincón R., Miton Romero R., Néstor Bernal S., Nelly Rodríguez E., Juliana Rodríguez C.

Resumen


Ecosystem change and deforestation has advanced in four areas of the Guayanes region of the Colombian Amazon (La Macarena, Nukak, Puinawai and Chiribiquete). This paper aims to identify which factors have influenced these changes, by undertaking analyses on both municipal and pixel levels. The analyses of municipal data provide the social and demographic context for each area. In addition, a correlation analysis is carried out. Pixel level data is used to estimate logistic regression models for each area. Moreover, to take into account the dynamics of change and the effects of proximity between pixels, a simulation exercise is undertaken using DINAMICA software (developed at the Remote Sensor Centre of the Federal University of Minas Gerais) to analyse the two areas that underwent the most change. The results of the association, modelling and simulation analyses reveal that the following factors have driven ecosystem change and deforestation in the study area: ease of land access (distance from roads), the legal status of the territory and the distance from urban centres (the distance from administrative centres).



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5821/sth.v0i1.1019


Càtedra UNESCO de Sostenibilidad | Revista Internacional STH

ISSN-1988-0928
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