Long-Term Urban Land Market Trends. Concepcion, Chile. 1989-2018

Abstract

For 40 years in Chile, the economy has been open, it operates through the free market; the State has played a subsidiary role. In this context, the opacity of the land market constitutes a central problem due to the high risk for the efficient action of urban planning, real estate management, and the provision of housing. Hence, your knowledge is of crucial importance to ensure transparency. On the other hand, regional territories have particularities and common aspects due to their location and local urban management. The case of Gran Concepción in Chile was studied with data on land offers 1989-2018 and by correlations, the behavior of the variables was reviewed looking for regularities. For trends, it was projected to 2030 through forecasts with the Holt-Winters model. A high association between variables was detected, a consolidated market with a hierarchical urban structure with a downward trend in offers and surface offered, a strong upward trend in prices growing above the results of the economy and its projections. It was evidenced that the configuration of the price is not only due to the action of direct supply and demand, but other components such as the configuration of the “advance price” in the face of government announcements and the “impact price” in the event of disaster nature and due to human action. It was also observed that it is possible to detect the maturity and robustness of the market as soon as the decoupling of key variables such as price occurs, with respect to the supply in quantity and volume.