Elements for diagnosing resilience due to sea level rise in coastal cities of the Colombian Caribbean

Abstract

The general objective of the research was to build a model of urban resilience assessment, for coastal cities on the Caribbean coast of Colombia, in which different approaches to urban resilience in coastal towns and cities were studied; from the construction of measurable elements in urban centers, which can be used as an instrument of planning and territorial planning. The exploration was carried out in stages, which linked a first phase of conceptual and methodological elaboration based on risk management, for the construction of the set of indicators that provided information for the evaluation of resilience in coastal urban environments. Then, the principles of urban resilience were identified for the formulation of sustainable urban planning models in coastal cities. Thus, the studies carried out by the coastal state authorities were consulted and crossed with the locations of the urban centers. Then, from the previous conceptual and methodological construction, the scope of affectation due to increase in sea level was determined cartographically, determined by the increase in global temperature, which allowed obtaining data for the preparation of qualitative and quantitative profiles of impact on coastal urban centers. Thus, an impact assessment and the magnitude of response were estimated according to their installed and quantified capacities, to be referred to as an indicator of the level of resilience of each urban system. Information was collected from flood studies and projections conducted by the Climate Central Organization, with open availability in the Surging Seas tool. From the georeferenced images of the Surging Seas models and Google Earth pro satellite images, on which planimetric information from the Administrative Department of Statistics - DANE of Colombia is superimposed; With these inputs the cartographies of each of the coastal municipalities of the Coastal Environmental Units of Darién, Gulf of Morrosquillo, Rio Magdalena, Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta and La Guajira were built. A total of 39 maps of 25 municipalities and their areas of influence were prepared, as well as tables of analysis and interpretation of the data, in which the impacts due to sea level increase were quantified in three scenarios of increase in the global temperature each on modeled mapping for each of the municipal headings and relevant indicators were evaluated for the diagnosis of the social, environmental and economic dimensions, which with the implementation of risk induction methods, could allow the estimation of the capacity of resistance and response to induced impact, translated into the level of resilience of each of the municipalities studied. The studies made it possible to estimate that of the analyzed sample corresponding to 264 km², 52% will suffer serious impacts with a relative increase in the global temperature of 1.5 ° C, that is, in the most conservative range of increase in sea level - ANM according to the reference studies, which can lead to 1,184,353 potentially affected inhabitants, in addition to the severe impact on a large percentage of all types of social, economic and ecosystem services infrastructure of the municipalities analyzed. It is evident that the impact generated by the increase in sea levels, projected in accordance with the expectation of global temperature increase, will leave coastal municipalities in very critical conditions; But essentially the departments and emblematic cities of the Colombian Caribbean coast will run out of central administration. Reason why, the generation of evacuation, relocation and progressive accommodation plans towards the continent of the population with latent threat is imminent, restricting future developments in areas with threat testing and the generation of natural systems of buffering the territory, all This is done with the important contribution of robust and multidisciplinary research programs that support decision making. Therefore, land planning plans must begin to act on the premise of real flooding as a condition of territorial planning.